Overview
This platform provides seasonal forecast guidance for marine heatwave (MHW) risk based on global sea surface temperature (SST) observations and multi-model ensemble forecasts.
The main product is a monthly MHW probability outlook, designed to help users explore where ocean temperature extremes are more likely to occur over the coming season. Daily monitoring and yearly summary modules are under development.
Data Sources
- ERSSTv6 — Monthly observed SST used to define the historical climatology and marine heatwave threshold.
- NMME Ensemble Forecast — Multi-model seasonal SST forecasts used to estimate future marine heatwave probability.
- Temporal coverage combines historical observations with the latest available forecast initialization.
Methodology
Marine heatwave risk is estimated by comparing forecast SST conditions against a historical climatological threshold.
Climatological reference period: 1991–2020, the current 30-year climate normal period recognized by the World Meteorological Organization.
Monthly climatologies and threshold fields are derived from observed SST datasets. Ensemble forecast members are then evaluated against these thresholds to estimate MHW occurrence probability.
Area-weighted means are calculated for each ocean domain, accounting for the convergence of meridians toward the poles.
Visualization Features
- Seasonal marine heatwave probability maps and time series
- Multi-model ensemble forecast comparison
- Interactive charts with zoom, pan, and data export
- Responsive design for desktop, tablet, and mobile devices
- Forecast spread bands highlighting ensemble uncertainty
About the Project
This is a research project for marine heatwave seasonal prediction, ocean climate visualization, and decision-support analysis. The platform is developed for research and educational purposes at Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech).